According to recent scientific studies, the rate of increase in Earth’s average temperature has accelerated significantly in recent years. Climate scientists report that the planet’s surface temperature is currently rising by approximately 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade. This rate is nearly twice as high as during the period from 1970 to 2015, when warming occurred at around 0.2 degrees per decade.

This conclusion was reached by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany), who compared data from several independent international meteorological databases. The main goal of the research was to distinguish genuine long-term climate trends from ordinary natural weather fluctuations.

Scientists also considered temporary factors affecting climate change. Events such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and variations in solar activity can cause short-term increases or decreases in temperature. Therefore, the influence of these factors was removed during the analysis.

Researchers examined data from recent decades, including climate archives from NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Europe’s ERA5 climate data system.

The calculations showed that scientific confidence in the reality of accelerated global warming exceeds 98 percent. Scientists emphasize that this is not simply a measurement error or a temporary event, but a genuine physical change in the climate system.

According to the study, a significant turning point in the climate system occurred approximately between 2013 and 2015. In addition, 2023 and 2024 ranked among the hottest years since modern observations began.

Scientists used different statistical methods to determine the rate of temperature increase. Both methods confirmed that a major shift has occurred in the temperature rise trend in recent years.

Experts note that the purpose of the research was not to determine the causes of climate change, but to measure its speed. Nevertheless, scientists emphasize that the current situation corresponds with climate models linking these changes to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and oceans, primarily carbon dioxide (CO₂).

The scientific community warns that if the current warming rate continues, the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold identified in the Paris Climate Agreement as a critical limit could be exceeded by 2030.

Experts believe that the future pace of global warming will largely depend on how quickly humanity can reduce emissions caused by the use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas. According to current scientific understanding, even if carbon dioxide emissions were completely stopped, climate system changes after reaching 1.5–2 degrees Celsius could continue for at least another 100 years.

At the same time, some scientists do not view climate change solely as a threat. They point out that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations affect plant growth and have contributed to the expansion of green vegetation in some regions of the world. There are also views that certain parts of modern agriculture benefit from the effects of CO₂ on plants.

Nevertheless, for most climate experts worldwide, the main challenge remains reducing the rate of temperature increase and ensuring long-term climate stability.